From multilateral reform to gender-responsive climate governance, this dispatch unpacks what to expect from Belém and the stakes for a more equitable climate future.
Amidst protracted conflicts across the world, blatant political and military intervention from foreign powers, and some countries’ withdrawal from crucial international organisations, we live in times of wariness about the effectiveness – and even existence, for some – of international law and multilateralism. The discredit is not by chance: the recent emptiness, both in political stature and attendance, of the EU-CELAC meeting held a few days before COP 30 attests to that. To counter this skepticism, this year’s UN Climate Change Conference, COP 30, has been called the ‘COP of implementation’ by the Brazilian presidency. As such, expectations are high: in times of geopolitical uncertainty and seismic changes in the international order, would one be gullible to believe that bold plans will finally be put into practice?
Taking place in Belém, in the heart of Brazil’s Amazon rainforest, the gathering marks the end of a cycle of Brazilian presidencies for important multilateral forums: the Amazon Summit (2023), the G20 (2024), and the BRICS+ Summits (2025) all took place in South America’s largest nation, showcasing the country’s longstanding commitment to being a regional and global leader.
The Brazilian presidencies have been distinctive in that they have placed the fight against inequalities and the climate agenda at the centre of all these forums, including the G20 Summit, which traditionally focuses on economic and trade aspects rather environmental concerns. In an astute move, Brazilian diplomacy has swept those into the talks for the environment is simultaneously the source of crucial supplies for the economy and the very stage where all human interactions take place. Mitigating the harmful impacts of human activities over the environment is, therefore, a topic that cannot be brushed off in multilateral talks, and Brazil’s effort to mainstream climate is one to serve as a model.
Brazil has been a prominent player in climate talks since at least 1992, when it hosted the landmark Earth Summit, which led to the creation of the main UN convention on Climate Change, the UNFCCC. Upon this framework convention, important instruments have been built, most notably the Kyoto Protocol (1997) – which held industrialised nations accountable through legally binding emission reduction targets -, and the Paris Agreement (2015) – a multilateral accord aimed at preventing a rise of over 2 degrees Celsius in global temperature compared to pre-industrial levels.
This year, almost 200 countries, civil society organisations, and private sector representatives will gather in Belém to discuss how to effectively implement the Paris Agreement. Brazil’s presidency has its own goals: defending multilateralism, accelerating climate action, and connecting political decisions to people’s everyday lives. Now in his third term as president, Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party) has for decades advocated for Brazil’s admission as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Likewise, he has been an eloquent voice for the democratisation and reform of the financial architecture, proposing new quotas in the IMF and World Bank to favour developing countries and relieve them from their debt burden. In line with his advocacy for more democratic governance in security and trade is his insistence on democratising climate governance, following well-defined, predictable rules that states will abide by, for those are the derived from multilateral spaces. Or so the plan goes.
Brazil has placed at the forefront of its presidency the integration of the three UN Conventions addressing the crises of climate, biodiversity, and desertification. According to Brazilian experts, integrating the conventions is fundamental for protecting coastal and marine areas and traditional communities, while taking into account each country’s realities and prioritising nature-based solutions. Because the effects of these crises are felt differently across constituencies—affecting vulnerable communities the most, particularly women and girls—the Gender Action Plan, an initiative to mainstream gender equality across all climate-related agreements, must gain greater definition.
The first week of negotiations was marked by baby steps towards a final agreement on more controversial topics such as climate financing and nationally determined contributions. Funding-wise, Brazil is leading efforts to raise as much of the US$1.3 trillion agreed on in the Baku to Belém Declaration as possible. The country has also launched the innovative Tropical Forests Forever Fund, a financial mechanism to generate revenue for tropical forest preservation. Unlike loans and grants, this fund consists of a fixed-incomed financial application whose profits are used to compensate countries that keep their forests standing, so that conservation becomes economically advantageous.
In relation to energy transition, Brazil has been dubious. Rhetorically, the country proposed the Belém Commitment for Sustainable Fuel, or Belém 4X, which aims to increase by four times the global use of biofuels by 2035. Although commendable, especially since placing all bets on electrification might be unrealistic given the persistence of carbon-intensive sectors, this initiative was put forward amid controversy, as Brazil recently authorised the exploration of oil in the equatorial margins of Brazil. How states will harness the potential of their own natural resources to boost the biofuel industry (the sargassum industry in the Caribbean being a powerful example), what technologies are available for countries and what the current picture looks like regarding biofuel production and use are some of the subjects to watch on this regard.
Friction persists on the issue of adaptation. The goal of reaching up to a hundred indicators to monitor climate adaptation worldwide (the GGA, Global Goal for Adaptation) was frustrated due to developing countries’ misgivings that a poor performance might jeopardise future investments in them.
After all, the U.S. absence from the Conference, overall, did more good than harm. Discussions proceeded without Donald Trump’s boycotts and after all American Democrats who joined the discussion are receiving praise for still supporting these spaces. His strong supporter, the Argentinian president Javier Milei, also declined the invitation to attend COP 30. He did not take his country out of the Paris Agreement, though. Not due to lack of willingness – but because the toll would be high to pay, given that the EU-Mercosur agreement is on the brink of being finalised and the EU holds high environmental standards for closing the deal.
References
Association for Women’s Rights in Development (AWID). (2025, November). COP30 key messages [PDF report]. Retrieved November 12, 2025, from https://www.awid.org/sites/default/files/2025-11/awid_cop30-key-messages_en.pdf
Centro Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (CEBRI). COP30: How Brazil can pave the way for the next decade of climate action. Revista CEBRI. Retrieved November 12, 2025, from https://cebri.org/revista/br/artigo/229/cop30-como-o-brasil-pode-abrir-caminho-para-a-proxima-decada-de-acao-climatica
Folha de S.Paulo. (2025, November). Gender challenges at COP30. Retrieved November 12, 2025, from https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/opiniao/2025/11/desafios-de-genero-na-cop30.shtml
Globo. (2025, November 10). COP30 officially begins this Monday: What is at stake and what to expect from the conference on the climate crisis. G1 Meio Ambiente. Retrieved November 12, 2025, from https://g1.globo.com/meio-ambiente/cop-30/noticia/2025/11/10/cop30-comeca-oficialmente-nesta-segunda-saiba-o-que-esta-em-jogo-e-o-que-esperar-da-conferencia-sobre-a-crise-do-clima.ghtml
O Eco. Brazil proposes greater synergy between UN environmental conventions to address global crises. Retrieved November 12, 2025, from https://oeco.org.br/reportagens/brazil-proposes-greater-synergy-between-un-environmental-conventions-to-address-global-crises/
Schuck, S. (2025, November 16). De inovação diplomática a impasses políticos: o balanço da 1ª semana da COP30. Exame. https://exame.com/esg/de-inovacao-diplomatica-a-impasses-politicos-o-balanco-da-1a-semana-da-cop30/
UN Women. (2025, November). Climate change & the Gender Action Plan. Retrieved November 12, 2025, from https://www.unwomen.org/en/news-stories/explainer/2025/11/climate-change-gender-action-plan
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